Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 3.193159 3.835713 4.555003 5.417007 6.418944 7.543690 8.898616
2025-05-11 2.250942 3.059620 4.062927 5.387394 7.076523 9.144147 11.850162
2025-05-18 1.613085 2.443399 3.569105 5.181139 7.399722 10.310781 14.377181
2025-05-25 1.180986 1.973598 3.136920 4.925834 7.554016 11.210058 16.600078
2025-06-01 0.936781 1.708128 2.921691 4.905704 7.985757 12.483585 19.414284
2025-06-08 0.767299 1.516053 2.770917 4.937989 8.469707 13.849428 22.459874
2025-06-15 0.628929 1.342113 2.611163 4.917767 8.848867 15.071325 25.377048
2025-06-22 0.489510 1.131517 2.346336 4.671581 8.815293 15.627362 27.292769
2025-06-29 0.407116 1.011761 2.220655 4.642744 9.130381 16.752887 30.184490
2025-07-06 0.340226 0.907626 2.104149 4.608418 9.422079 17.852114 33.105851
2025-07-13 0.315173 0.890824 2.158125 4.904599 10.339495 20.088277 38.096248
2025-07-20 0.282162 0.847128 2.147521 5.068094 11.020486 21.958352 42.584941
2025-07-27 0.257699 0.820639 2.173381 5.317135 11.906277 24.292760 48.108149
2025-08-03 0.218646 0.745662 2.076436 5.291889 12.247650 25.660821 52.012860
2025-08-10 0.176616 0.649792 1.911214 5.090129 12.203452 26.296773 54.622906
2025-08-17 0.140158 0.558300 1.737336 4.839189 12.021548 26.643053 56.705066
2025-08-24 0.119627 0.510381 1.666246 4.819510 12.332601 27.975481 60.744617
2025-08-31 0.104052 0.474053 1.619244 4.851344 12.759300 29.569523 65.393368
2025-09-07 0.089134 0.434826 1.555894 4.831450 13.063697 30.932029 69.669716
2025-09-14 0.070657 0.374519 1.416615 4.589076 12.817547 31.117455 71.588424
2025-09-21 0.060368 0.343236 1.359671 4.560689 13.080077 32.405127 75.836361
2025-09-28 0.051506 0.314372 1.304009 4.526896 13.324304 33.668421 80.109761
2025-10-05 0.049712 0.317781 1.357849 4.818494 14.418244 36.890453 88.697906